Be sure to check out Part 1 of this post, when the activity was assigned (i.e. if you were absent from E/M yesterday). There I provided my data on the **number of Charlie Sheen’s twitter followers** and the time. I hypothesized that it would be a more-or-less exponential growth curve.

I’ll break this up into a few different time pieces. Here’s the plot of Charlie Sheen’s followers as I have them, only for **3/1/2011**, the day he joined twitter.

Not only is that a linear fit, it’s ** very linear** (R-squared of 0.9995). I’m also shocked at how straight that line is. That is, there are not spikes of activity. I would have thought that in the evening, when everyone’s sitting in front of their TVs with their iPad 2’s there would be a marked increase in @charliesheen twitter followers.

Now let’s look at the same graph, but with **all of Day 2 **(3/2/2011) data included.

Unfortunately, I didn’t check Sheen’s twitter followers in the middle of the night, but it appears to have **leveled off slightly** going into Day 2 of the twitter account.

It looks like you could either construct this as a **step-wise function or a quadratic-decay function.**

Now, I’m not 100% sure when the twitter feed account went live – in fact, that was one of the questions I asked last time – but I do have this:

Zooming in a little on the right:

This is the Google realtime search feature. I would assume there’s a strong correlation between the Google realtime searches for “@charliesheen” and the activation of the twitter account. So it looks like the account may have gone active sometime in the mid-afternoon of 3/1/2011. **Let’s call it 3:00 PM.** In that case, we’d have the following curve.

The followers-curve really looks like **it’s tapering off here**.

Let’s add a couple data points. I took **two more “measurements**“. One yesterday, and one, just now.

So at 11:31 AM yesterday, he had almost 1.3 million followers. At 9:43 AM today (3/4/2011) he had 1.55 million followers. Adding that data to our chart yields the following.

While still climbing steadily, **the curve is nowhere near as steep** as it was on Day 1, which is probably to be expected.

Hey, I bet the slope of the line over time would be interesting. And that would give us a clue as to where this thing is headed. Let’s break it up into **(Change-in-followers per minute) vs. (time)**.

**There’s my exponential**! We’ll have to fudge the x-values a bit to get an actual equation and trendline.

And you know what? I bet if I tossed out a few of those early, “noisy” observation, we’d get a much better fitted curve. But still, it looks like you can pretty well describe the behavior of Charlie Sheen’s number of twitter followers with this exponential *decay* curve.

Now, what can we do with this? Was this just a ridiculous exercise by someone who spends too much time in front of his computer? Perhaps (probably). But are there any **implications **for the dramatic growth and tapering off of a (sort of crazy) celebrity twitter followers?

Remember in 2010, when **LeBron James** joined twitter before his announcement of where he was headed, dubbed “The Decision” on ESPN? His twitter followers had a similar explosion at the beginning before he even tweeted anything. I don’t have the data unfortunately. While everyone agrees that “The Decision” was a huge PR mistake, everyone also agrees that the ratings for “The Decision” were **through the roof**. Let’s put it this way: more people watched “The Decision” where James announced which team he would join than many actual NBA Finals games. **Did the simple creation of the twitter account boost the ratings**? What if “Two and a Half Men” came back on the air now? I have to assume that the ratings would be similarly boosted. **James Franco **did something similar before his hosting of the Oscars, joining twitter beforehand.

You think **agents **and TV and movie **execs **aren’t aware of the “twitter-effect?” Of course they are, and they’re probably also interested in some of the **hard data** that comes along with it.

This was fun. Let’s do it again sometime.