Now that we’ve heard from Drew, I’ll toss out a few picks that I think are smart mathematically.
(Editors note: Don’t gamble on sports. Don’t do it. It’s incredibly stupid. Never, ever use real money to bet on sports. This is for entertainment purposes only.)
1) $20 on 71-75 total points (1/100). We discussed this at length on Friday and Saturday in the comments section, but here’s my quick justification: almost 2% of all 2010 regular season games end in that point range. And while Super Bowls are usually low scoring (I think, I haven’t done the research), that’s great value to me. Potential payout: $2000.
2) $10 on Mike Wallace, Super Bowl MVP (15/1). Payout: $150.
3) $10 on Troy Palomalu, Super Bowl MVP (14/1). Payout: $140.
4) $10 on James Harrison, Super Bowl MVP (25/1). Payout: $250.
5) $10 on James Farrior, Super Bowl MVP (45/1). Payout: $400.
6) $10 on Lawrence Timmons, Super Bowl MVP (45/1). Payout: $450.
7) $10 on “the field”, Super Bowl MVP (16/1). Payout: $160.
I absolutely think Pittsburgh will win this game. And I think I’m the only person in the world who thinks it won’t be close. I won’t bore you with the reasoning, but I’ll just say if I had a few extra bucks, the Packers total points (24), under bet looks enticing. And I think Drew’s reasoning against picking Roethlisberger is solid. It’ll take a huge game for Roethlisberger to win MVP. Something like 400 yards and 3 TDs. And if he does that, then there’s a decent chance my 71-75 total points bet could hit. Then I could give a flying flip who wins the MVP because I’m already booking my flight to Cabo.
8 ) $20 on total points – 37.5 or fewer (+205). Payout: 41$,
This is obviously a hedge against my first bet. In the event of a low scoring game – which I certainly think is more likely than a offensive game, I get some of my money back. And hopefully one of the defensive players above wins MVP.
Doomsday scenario for me: Packers win (as is expected I think), by a moderate amount. Rodgers wins MVP unanimously and the total points are between 38 and 70. I’d say the chances of all of that happening are about 35-40%. But then again, as a Browns fan, even if I lose $100, that’s worth it to prevent Pittsburgh from winning a(nother) Super Bowl.
Anyone else got some last-minute SB betting suggestions? Would you like to go “On the Record, with Emergent Math”? Email me.
emergent math 
Good disclaimer – solid “Here, here!” on that.
Makes me think of the great “The Lottery is a Tax on People Who are Bad at Math” bumper sticker. Maybe THAT’S the socially acceptable way to use some of this in the classroom?
M.A.G. (Mathematicians Against Gambling”) want to create a series of billboards to discourage gambling…
Yeah, trying to outsmart Vegas is pretty dumb in the long run, unless you’re really, really good at math and have an encyclopedic knowledge of sports (or have inside information, a la the 1919 Black Sox scandal).
Check. Check. Check.
See kids: don’t gamble.