Now that we’ve heard from Drew, I’ll toss out a few picks that I think are smart mathematically.
(Editors note: Don’t gamble on sports. Don’t do it. It’s incredibly stupid. Never, ever use real money to bet on sports. This is for entertainment purposes only.)
1) $20 on 71-75 total points (1/100). We discussed this at length on Friday and Saturday in the comments section, but here’s my quick justification: almost 2% of all 2010 regular season games end in that point range. And while Super Bowls are usually low scoring (I think, I haven’t done the research), that’s great value to me. Potential payout: $2000.
2) $10 on Mike Wallace, Super Bowl MVP (15/1). Payout: $150.
3) $10 on Troy Palomalu, Super Bowl MVP (14/1). Payout: $140.
4) $10 on James Harrison, Super Bowl MVP (25/1). Payout: $250.
5) $10 on James Farrior, Super Bowl MVP (45/1). Payout: $400.
6) $10 on Lawrence Timmons, Super Bowl MVP (45/1). Payout: $450.
7) $10 on “the field”, Super Bowl MVP (16/1). Payout: $160.
I absolutely think Pittsburgh will win this game. And I think I’m the only person in the world who thinks it won’t be close. I won’t bore you with the reasoning, but I’ll just say if I had a few extra bucks, the Packers total points (24), under bet looks enticing. And I think Drew’s reasoning against picking Roethlisberger is solid. It’ll take a huge game for Roethlisberger to win MVP. Something like 400 yards and 3 TDs. And if he does that, then there’s a decent chance my 71-75 total points bet could hit. Then I could give a flying flip who wins the MVP because I’m already booking my flight to Cabo.
8 ) $20 on total points – 37.5 or fewer (+205). Payout: 41$,
This is obviously a hedge against my first bet. In the event of a low scoring game – which I certainly think is more likely than a offensive game, I get some of my money back. And hopefully one of the defensive players above wins MVP.
Doomsday scenario for me: Packers win (as is expected I think), by a moderate amount. Rodgers wins MVP unanimously and the total points are between 38 and 70. I’d say the chances of all of that happening are about 35-40%. But then again, as a Browns fan, even if I lose $100, that’s worth it to prevent Pittsburgh from winning a(nother) Super Bowl.
Anyone else got some last-minute SB betting suggestions? Would you like to go “On the Record, with Emergent Math”? Email me.