One person’s $100 Super Bowl Pick Pack

(note: that does not imply that he’s picking the Pack.)

Based on our discussion on Friday’s Super Bowl prop bet post , we thought a fun, and possibly marginally educational, activity would be to let students (and teachers!) have $100 of “money” to bet on the myriad of Super Bowl odds, with justification.

Here’s a set sent in by Drew.

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Ok so here is my $100 Super Bowl Pick Pack.  I made these picks with the following criteria:

  1. Only had $100.
  2. More fun to cheer FOR things than against – willing to acknowledge an entertainment value.
  3. If I win a bet, I want to come out ahead overall.
  4. I have no freakin’ idea what will happen, so I need to do some hedging.

I am going a somewhat strange direction with these picks.  The most interesting bets for me are the MVP best.  Now historically, QB is the MVP a disproportionate % of the time – and this Super Bowl seems particularly quarterback driven.   However, to bet either Rodgers (7/4) or Roethlisberger (7/2) as part of a hedge ties up too much money to do much else.

So I am going counter strategy and picking 5 MVPs from each side @ $10/each (ignoring the vig) and basically saying, “If it’s a predicable Super Bowl with a QB MPV – I’m out, here’s my money.”  But if things get a little funny, I get an interesting game, AND I can make some money too!   (Plus there is a part of me that thinks the Roethlisberger bet is off the table b/c Goodell won’t let him be MVP after his off-season.)

Besides QB, the list of MVPs has tilted towards WRs with a handful of key defensive players and few running backs.  However, each of these teams has a RB that could be a difference maker.

My Picks:

Green Bay:

  • James Starks (GB) RB 14/1
  • Greg Jennings (GB) WR 12/1
  • Donald Driver (GB) WR 25/1
  • A.J. Hawk (GB) LB 30/1
  • Clay Matthews (GB) LB 18/1

Pittsburgh:

  • Rashard Mendenhall (PIT) RB 15/2
  • Mike Wallace (PIT) WR 16/1
  • Heath Miller (PIT) TE 28/1
  • Troy Polamalu (PIT) S 15/1
  • James Harrison (PIT) LB 20/1

So now I have 9 chances to come out ahead (the Mendenhall bet doesn’t get me back to even, but he was on my fantasy team and I like him – how about that for a square bet?)  and people to cheer for on both sides of the ball for both teams . Game on!

This entry was posted in gambling, probability, sports, the super bowl. Bookmark the permalink.

2 Responses to One person’s $100 Super Bowl Pick Pack

  1. Pingback: My $100 Super Bowl Pick Pack | emergent math

  2. Pingback: The Wacky Algebra of NFL Passer Rating | emergent math

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